US Airfare History: Are Flights Getting More Expensive?

Air travel feels expensive, but here's a surprise: for most of the past three decades, airfares rose slower than the prices of almost everything else, so flying got cheaper in real terms. The big 2022 fare spike has since narrowed that gap, bringing cumulative airfare inflation roughly back in line with the overall cost of living. This guide charts airfare prices since 1990, explains why flying got relatively cheaper, and unpacks why fares swing so wildly from year to year.

Have airfares gone up?

In raw dollar terms, yes — the airfare price index has risen substantially since 1990. But the more revealing comparison is against overall inflation. For most of this period airfares lagged it — prices for flights grew more slowly than the broad cost of living, so flying took a smaller share of income than before. The 2022 spike has roughly closed that gap, leaving cumulative airfare inflation since 1990 about even with overall prices.

Why flying got relatively cheaper

Several forces pushed real airfares down over the decades. Airline deregulation in 1978 unleashed competition that the industry is still shaped by; the rise of low-cost carriers forced fares down further; and more fuel-efficient planes, fuller flights, and online price comparison all squeezed costs. Airlines also "unbundled" fares — charging separately for bags, seats, and extras — which keeps the headline ticket price lower than the all-in cost you actually pay.

The 2022 fare spike

The most dramatic recent move is the 2022 spike. After collapsing during the 2020 pandemic — when almost no one flew — fares roared back as travel demand surged faster than airlines could add flights and crews, and jet-fuel prices soared. Airfare inflation briefly hit some of its highest rates on record. As capacity recovered, the spike eased, a classic case of demand outrunning supply.

Why airfares are so volatile

Few prices swing as much as airfares, for good reason. Jet fuel is a huge, volatile share of airline costs, so fares move with oil prices. Airlines use sophisticated dynamic pricing, adjusting fares constantly by route, season, and demand. And air travel is highly cyclical — among the first things people cut in a downturn and add back in a boom. That combination of fuel exposure, dynamic pricing, and cyclical demand makes airfares one of the jumpiest items in the whole inflation basket.